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International Journal of Cancer

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match International Journal of Cancer's content profile, based on 49 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.04% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Genetic prediction of colorectal cancer risk in six major ancestries provides insights to streamline practice screening guidelines.

Parasuraman, A.; Lim, A. W.-Y.; Eltayib, R.; Pandeya, N.; Olsen, C. M.; Radford-Smith, G.; Whiteman, D. C.; MacGregor, S.; Seviiri, M.

2026-08-11 gastroenterology 10.64898/2026.08.10.26360074 medRxiv
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Background and objective: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Early identification of high-risk individuals allows targeted prevention and early detection. Design: We constructed a polygenic risk score (PRS) for CRC risk using data from 1,448,354 individuals (103,401 cases). We evaluated its performance for identifying high-risk individuals in 6 major ancestries. Results: The PRS was strongly associated with CRC risk in Europeans (OR per SD =2.13, 95%CI=1.98-2.28), Africans (OR=1.35, 95%CI=1.11-1.64), Hispanics (OR=1.97, 95%CI =1.48-2.61), East Asians (OR=1.98, 95%CI=1.35-2.91), South Asians (OR=1.85, 95%CI=1.44 -2.37), and Middle Easterners (OR=3.10, 95%CI=1.38-6.95). Europeans in the top 10% genetic risk had 14-fold and 5-fold higher CRC risks compared to the bottom 10% (OR=13.50, 95%CI=8.67-21.00), and average (20-70%) risk groups (OR=4.64, 95%CI=3.89-5.52), respectively. The CRC risk in the top 10% individuals was equivalent to having three affected first degree relatives with CRC diagnosed at any age. Genetically high-risk individuals developed CRC up to 15 years earlier than the average. The PRS was strongly associated with early onset CRC risk e.g. in AFR (OR=3.22, 95%CI=1.79-5.81), and improved its prediction e.g. by 9% beyond clinical predictors in EUR. Conclusion: A comprehensive genetic prediction of CRC risk provides insights that could streamline screening and prevention guidelines.

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Suicide after cancer diagnosis among older adults: A nationwide study from Austria

Stolz, E.; Schultz, A.; Poetz, E. L.; Smolle, A. M.; Watzka, C.; Jagsch, C.; Niederkrotenthaler, T.; Erlangsen, A.

2026-07-16 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.14.26358049 medRxiv
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ABSTRACT Background: Onset of cancer is linked to psychological distress and cancer is prevalent in older adults. Yet, the association to suicide is scarcely examined. The aim of this study was to assess whether cancer diagnosed in older adults is associated with suicide incidence. Methods: All older adults (65+ years) who lived in Austria in the years 2014-2021 (n=2,175,134) were followed. Of these, 223,932 were diagnosed with a new cancer. We used non-parametric survival models with inverse-probability-treatment weights to compare risk ratios (relative risk) and risk differences (absolute risk) of older adults with and without cancer. Results: Out of 2,158 suicide deaths, 442 (20.5%; 83.7% males) occurred among older adults with a new cancer diagnosis. The incidence rate was 74 among those with a new cancer diagnosis versus 23 per 100,000 person-years among those with no new cancer. One year after being diagnosed, older adults with a new cancer had a 4 times higher relative risk of dying by suicide compared to those without. The risk was highest within the first three months after diagnosis and for cancers with a poor prognosis (disseminated disease; lung, oesophagus, stomach, liver, pancreas, and brain cancers). The absolute risk of dying by suicide within 5 years after cancer diagnosis was 0.18% versus to 0.11% among those with no new cancer. Discussion: Older adults who received a new cancer diagnosis had elevated suicide risks. Provision of support to cope with mental distress should be considered at cancer diagnosis, especially for older adults with a poor prognosis.

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Immortal time bias reproduces the reported survival benefit of conversion surgery in stage IV gastric cancer: a simulation study

Sah, B. K.; Li, C.; Li, J.; Zhu, Z.

2026-09-03 gastroenterology 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361986 medRxiv
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Background Conversion surgery for stage IV gastric cancer is supported by a pooled overall survival hazard ratio of 0.36 (95% confidence interval 0.32-0.40) and, in the largest international cohort, median survival of 36.7 versus 12.5-13.8 months on chemotherapy. Survival is measured from diagnosis; the median diagnosis-to-gastrectomy interval is 124 days, which patients must survive to be counted surgical. Methods We simulated cohorts of 3,177 stage IV gastric cancer patients from published parameters: background median survival 14.5 months; median diagnosis-to-surgery interval 124 days (category-specific 92-174 days). Surgery had no effect (true hazard ratio 1.00 by construction). Data were analysed as the literature analyses them (exposure fixed at baseline, follow-up from diagnosis), and by time-varying Cox and landmark analysis. Confounding by indication was added in a second scenario. Results Under immortal time bias alone the naive analysis returned a hazard ratio of 0.794 (95% simulation interval 0.743-0.851), median survival 16.8 versus 12.8 months. Time-varying Cox recovered 1.000 and landmark analysis 1.000-1.004. Bias scaled with the interval: 0.849 at 92 days, 0.715 at 174 days. Adding confounding, the naive estimate fell to 0.601 (0.560-0.644) at strength 0.5 and 0.356 (0.323-0.385) at strength 1.5, overlapping the published estimate; median survival 21.9 versus 8.7 months. Correcting immortal time alone left residual bias (hazard ratio 0.439). Conclusions The reported survival advantage of conversion surgery is reproducible where the operation does nothing; published estimates cannot distinguish benefit from bias. Resolving this requires individual patient data analysed with methods that assign person-time correctly, or completion of JCOG2301.

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Performance of general-population breast cancer risk prediction models in an international consortium

Brantley, K. D.; Ahearn, T. U.; Norton, E. L.; MacInnis, R.; Palmer, J. R.; Fortner, R. T.; Vachon, C. M.; Beane-Freeman, L.; Berrington de Gonzalez, A.; Frost, R.; Bertrand, K. A.; Zirpoli, G.; Neuhouser, M. L.; Barnett, M.; Teras, L. R.; Hodge, J. M.; Patel, A. V.; Bodelon, C.; Lacey, J. V.; Spielfogel, E. S.; Rohan, T. E.; Kirsh, V. A.; Langseth, H.; Tsuruda, K. M.; Milne, R. L.; Haiman, C.; Scott, C. G.; Eliassen, A. H.; Rosner, B.; Willett, W. C.; Romanos-Nanclares, A.; Chen, Y.; Wu, F.; Zheng, W.; Long, J.; O'Brien, K. M.; Sandler, D. P.; Kitahara, C. M.; Linet, M. S.; Anderson, G.; Lars

2026-08-23 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.20.26360899 medRxiv
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Background: Several breast cancer (BC) risk prediction models have been developed to provide personal risk assessments. Though individually validated, their performance has not been systematically evaluated across a wide range of populations or ages. Methods: We harmonized individual-level baseline questionnaire data and incident BC diagnoses from 21 cohorts from North America, Europe, and Australia participating in the Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Project. Five-year absolute risk of invasive BC was estimated for five established risk prediction models using classical risk factors only. Discrimination was evaluated by area under the curve (AUC). Calibration was assessed using average and risk-decile specific expected to observed (E/O) ratios. Performance metrics were meta-analyzed across cohorts and models. Metaregression tested associations between cohort characteristics and performance metrics. Results: This analysis included 1,595,977 women aged 20-75 years, enrolled in studies between 1976-2015, with 19,062 (1.2%) invasive BC cases ascertained within 5 years from exposure assessment. Age-adjusted AUCs were similar across models and cohorts (pooled AUCs by model: 0.57-0.58), while E/O ratios varied substantially (pooled E/O ratios by model: 0.83-1.25). Overestimation was common among predicted high-risk individuals (>3%). No appreciable differences in model performance by cohort age, birth year, race, and variable missingness emerged. Calibration improved after assigning race-specific incidence rates. Conclusion: Existing BC risk prediction models provided similar risk discrimination across multiple cohorts, although there was overestimation of risk for high-risk individuals. Performance variation across cohorts was not driven by specific characteristics, which supports development of a unified risk model for diverse populations that leverages appropriate incidence rates.

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Race and Socioeconomic Status Impact Survival from Early and Late-Onset Colorectal Cancer

Purrington, K.; Hsieh, M.-C.; Patil, S.; Mabvakure, B.; Ahn, J.; Zhang, R.; Ruterbusch, J. J.; Samdani, R.; Lee, G.; Wenzlaff, A.; Latif, S.; Dash, C.; Sartor, M.; Schwartz, A. G.; Stoffel, E. M.; Rozek, L. S.

2026-06-29 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.24.26356439 medRxiv
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Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) disproportionately affects non-Hispanic Black (NHB) Americans compared to Non-Hispanic White (NHW), with more cases arising before age 50. Racial disparities in outcomes reflect complex interactions among healthcare access, socioeconomic factors, and structural racism, yet analyses linking individual-level data for these factors to survival remain limited. Methods: We examined overall and CRC-specific survival among NHB and NHW patients diagnosed between 2013 and 2022 enrolled in the Disparities and Cancer Epidemiology (DANCE) cohort, a population-based study of CRC in metropolitan Detroit and Louisiana. Multivariable Cox regression and competing-risks models were used to assess the roles of race, age of onset, neighborhood deprivation, and stage on survival outcomes. Results: Among 1,019 CRC cases (57% NHB, 43% NHW), NHB patients were more likely to reside in high-deprivation neighborhoods, report lower household incomes, and present with right-sided tumors, though stage at diagnosis did not differ by race. In multivariable analysis, stage was the strongest predictor of survival, while neighborhood deprivation (per 10-unit ADI increase: HR = 1.14) was independently associated with worse survival; NHB race was not significantly associated with survival after adjustment. Younger age at diagnosis was associated with a survival advantage in regional-stage disease but paradoxically with worse survival in distant-stage disease, and higher deprivation predicted worse survival in both local and distant but not regional stage. Conclusion: Our study shows that socioeconomic factors, as measured by ADI and household income, accounts for some, but not all, of the disparities in survival between NHB and NHW CRC cases.

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Associations between occupations and the occurrence of sarcomas: results of the French population-based case-control study ETIOSARC

GRAMOND, C.; Guillemin, L.; Coureau, G.; Systchenko, T.; Hammas, K.; GASH Illescas, A.; Delafosse, P.; Blay, J.-Y.; Ducimetiere, F.; Penel, N.; Toulmonde, M.; Le Loarer, F.; de Pinieux, G.; Baldi, I.; Monnereau, A.; Lacourt, A.; Mathoulin-Pelissier, S.; Amadeo, B.

2026-07-22 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.20.26358458 medRxiv
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Objective Sarcomas are rare tumors of connective tissue that can develop in soft-tissue, viscera organs, or bones. Previous occupational studies have mainly focused on men and soft-tissue sarcomas. This study describes associations between occupations and sarcomas, in men and women, for soft-tissue sarcomas (STS), including visceral sarcomas, and bone sarcomas (BS). Methods The ETIOSARC study was a multicenter case-control study conducted across six French geographical areas between 2019 and 2023. Occupational histories were collected by interview and coded according to the International Standard Classification of Occupations (2008). Conditional logistic regression models were applied to estimate odds ratios with 90% confidence intervals for each occupation included in the study. Results A total of 374 male cases (336 STS and 38 BS), 371 female cases (335 STS and 36 BS), and 1,387 controls were included. Positive associations were observed among male STS for painters (OR=5.37, 90% CI=1.83-15.71), waiters (OR=4.54, 90% CI=1.88-10.97), and among male BS for electricians (OR=3.67, 90% CI=0.91-14.86). Among women, increased STS risk was found among real estate agents (OR=3.48, 90% CI=1.03-11.79), food preparation assistants (OR=3.47, 90% CI=1.09-11.04), and administrative and executive secretaries (OR=2.37, 90% CI=1.45-3.86). For BS, a higher risk was observed among sales workers (OR=5.61, 90% CI=1.65-18.99). Conclusions Our study highlights hitherto unreported occupational associations with sarcomas, among both men and women, as well as the importance of sex-stratified analyses. Further research should aim to confirm these results and disentangle the respective roles of occupational exposures, environmental factors, and lifestyle characteristics.

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Performance of family history-based colorectal cancer screening criteria by race and age at diagnosis in the Disparities and Cancer Epidemiology (DANCE) study

Purrington, K.; Martin, C.; Wenzlaff, A. S.; Ruterbusch, J. J.; Patil, S.; Pandolfi, S. S.; Samayoa, I.; Schwartz, A. G.; Hsieh, M.-C.; Stoffel, E. M.; Rozek, L. S.

2026-06-19 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.16.26355827 medRxiv
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Importance: Family history (FH) and age are the primary criteria employed for early colorectal cancer (CRC) risk stratification. We evaluated how well these criteria identify individuals diagnosed with CRC across age and racial groups. Objective: To evaluate the performance of FH and age based screening criteria for identifying individuals with CRC, with attention to differences by race and age at diagnosis. Design, Setting, and Participants: This case control and case only analysis used data from the Disparities and Cancer Epidemiology (DANCE) cohort, a population based study of invasive CRC cases diagnosed from 2013 to 2022, recruited through the Metropolitan Detroit Cancer Surveillance System and the Louisiana Tumor Registry. Analyses included 1,158 non-Hispanic Black (NHB) and non-Hispanic White (NHW) CRC cases and 1,434 cancer-free controls from the Inflammation Health and Lung Epidemiology (INHALE) study, enrolled from the same Detroit catchment area. Data were analyzed in 2025. Exposures: Self reported cancer FH among first-degree (FD) relatives and grandparents, summarized into three FH-based screening criteria: at least one FD relative with CRC (colon early-screening criterion), any FH of Lynch syndrome related cancers, and meeting NCCN criteria for Lynch syndrome genetic testing. Main Outcomes and Measures: Proportion of cases meeting each FH based screening criterion stratified by race and age at diagnosis (<45, 45 - 49, 50 - 64, and <65 years); case only odds ratios for younger age at diagnosis; and case control odds ratios for CRC associated with each criterion, with race-by-age interaction tested. Results: Cancer FH burden differed by age at diagnosis across both racial groups. First degree (FD) CRC FH was highest among NHB CRC cases diagnosed before age 45 (22.6%) and lowest in those diagnosed at ages 45-49 (8.2%), while NHW participants reported more CRC FH with older age at diagnosis (p interaction=0.011). In case control analyses, having at least one FD relative with CRC was associated with higher odds of CRC before age 45 among NHB (OR=1.44, 95% CI 1.09 - 1.89) but not NHW individuals. The proportion of cases diagnosed before age 45 with a FD CRC FH was low, though markedly higher in NHB than NHW individuals (22.6% vs. 4.0%). While the proportion was slightly higher when including FH of any Lynch syndrome-related cancers (NHB: 24.5%, NHW: 10.0%), the proportion of controls with a FD FH of these cancers also increased. Conclusions and Relevance: Current family history-based criteria fail to identify the majority of individuals diagnosed with CRC before age 45, with performance varying substantially by race, highlighting the urgent need for more equitable and effective approaches to early-onset CRC risk stratification.

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Cancer trends in England in younger adults from 2001-2023: comparing incidence, mortality and stage at diagnosis

berrington de gonzalez, a.; O'Brien, E.; Richards, Z.; Frost, R.; Shiels, M.; Macklin-Doherty, A.; Garcia-Closas, M.

2026-07-02 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.30.26356042 medRxiv
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Objectives To compare trends in incidence and mortality rates for cancers with rising incidence in younger adults in England, and to assess whether increasing incidence is observed for early-stage, late-stage or both types of disease. Methods and analysis We used cancer incidence and mortality data from English National Disease Registration Service (2001-2023). Analyses focused on 12 cancers with increasing incidence (on average) in younger adults (20-49 years) and more than 500 cases diagnosed in 2023. Trends were quantified by estimating the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using Joinpoint regression and by calculating the excess number of cancer cases in 2023 compared to 2001. Age-standardised rates (ASRs) of early (stage 1-2) and late-stage (stage 3-4) disease were compared between 2013 (the earliest year available) to 2023. Results There were 31,385 cancers diagnosed in younger adults in 2023 compared to 244,384 in older adults. The most common cancers diagnosed in younger adults were female breast (n=8,504), colorectal (n=2,977) and melanoma (n=2,767). Of the 12 cancers that were increasing in younger adults between 2001 and 2023, only two also had increasing mortality rates: endometrial (AAPC[95%CI]= incidence 2.9%[2.4-3.4%] and mortality 4.0%[2.1-6.0%]) and colorectal cancer (AAPC[95%CI]= incidence 3.2%[2.8-3.6%] and mortality 1.9%[1.1-2.7%]). For thyroid cancer mortality rates were stable and for the other cancers (female breast, testicular, ovarian, kidney, brain, prostate, Hodgkin lymphoma and leukaemia) although incidence rates were increasing, mortality rates were decreasing, on average. Of the ten cancers with available stage data six showed increases in incidence rates for both early and late-stage disease between 2013 and 2023. Four cancers showed increases only in late-stage disease (female breast, ovarian, melanoma and Hodgkin lymphoma), while thyroid cancer showed an increase only in early-stage disease. Conclusions These population-wide analyses of national data from England, combining cancer incidence, mortality and stage-stratified incidence trends, highlight several public health and research priorities. These include identifying the causes of increasing colorectal cancer incidence in younger adults, given the marked increases in mortality and late-stage disease, and of increasing breast cancer incidence, which affects the largest number of younger adults and is increasing only for late-stage disease.

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Cardiovascular Risk in BRCA1/2 Mutation Carriers: A Matched Cohort Study of Breast Cancer Survivors

Dehghan Manshadi, M.; Manouchehri, N.; Hubbert, L.; Liljegren, A.; Manouchehrinia, A.; Linder-stragliotto, C.; Rantala, J.; Hedayati, E.; Kiani, N.

2026-07-27 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.26.26350298 medRxiv
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Introduction: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading non-cancer cause of morbidity among breast cancer (BC) survivors. Among them, women carrying germline BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations (BRCA-BC) may be at particular risk of CVD, but evidence is inconsistent. The objective of this study is to determine whether BRCA-BC independently influences the risk for CVD after BC diagnosis in the Stockholm-Gotland region in Sweden (2008-2019). Methods: In this registry-based cohort study, we used exact matching on age at diagnosis, tumor stage, laterality, and pre-existing CVD or risk factors to construct 32 matched (1:1) subgroups. Multi-state Cox proportional hazards models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for transitions from BC diagnosis to first cardiovascular event, while accounting for competing risks of distant metastasis or non-cardiovascular death. Results: In matched subgroups, BRCA-BC experienced fewer CVD (6.4% vs. 11.2% (IQR 9.4%-12.2%), but significantly more competing events (22.3% vs. 10.1% (IQR 8.9%-11.3%); p<0.05. Multi-state Cox models revealed an inverse association between BRCA-BC status and the first cardiovascular event (HR<1), but a higher hazard of the competing risk. Cardiovascular events clustered in the first year after BC diagnosis, especially among BRCA-BC, suggesting truncated time at risk. Conclusion: BRCA-BC did not demonstrate increased cardiovascular risk after BC diagnosis. The apparent inverse association with CVD likely reflects the high incidence of competing risks, which limit the window for CVD to manifest. A small subgroup of long-term BRCA-BC survivors may represent biologically distinct individuals with different cardiovascular susceptibility, warranting further investigation.

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Somatic Mutation Profiles in Colorectal Cancers Differ by Population

Mabvakure, B. M.; Promprasert, P.; Martinez Cruz, L.; Patil, S.; Barros, J.; Hayhurst, M.; Mohebbi, E.; de la Caridad Delgado Herrera, D.; Lee, G. J.; Latif, S.; Williams, F.; Samdani, R.; Duttargi, A.; Berhane, B.; Besufikad, E.; Tadesse, S.; Jibril Suleiman, A.; Lefante, C.; Hsieh, M.-C.; Purrington, K.; Adjei, E.; Qin, T.; Sartor, M.; Stoffel, E. M.; Rozek, L. S.

2026-06-29 gastroenterology 10.64898/2026.06.24.26356431 medRxiv
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PURPOSE Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality rates differ by population, and evidence suggests that genetic differences may affect cancer biology. However, studies investigating CRC variants in genetically heterogeneous populations are limited. Using somatic tumor mutation profiling of CRCs diagnosed in African Americans (AAs), Ghanaians, Ethiopians, and NHWs, we explore correlations between population group and population-specific tumor variants. PATIENTS AND METHODS Somatic DNA from CRC tumors resected from 150 individuals, including 43 AAs (27%), 53 NHWs (35%), 21 Ghanaians (14.2%), and 33 Ethiopians (22.3%), was sequenced on the Illumina NovaSeq platform, targeting 290 genes. We compared mutations in AAs, Ghanaians, and Ethiopians to those in NHWs to identify variants enriched in historically underrepresented groups. RESULTS US cohort tumors were diagnosed at significantly younger ages with more early-onset cases (<50 years old) than African cohorts (p <0.05). Significant differences were observed in primary tumor location, MMR phenotypes, KRAS mutations, and distribution of tumor mutational burden by population. BRAF V600E mutations were rare across all groups, while non-V600E BRAF mutation rates were higher in AA and NHW (43-44%) than Ethiopian and Ghanaian (14-33%) samples. Population-specific differences were identified in mutation rates of APC, CTNNB1, RNF43, PIK3CA, and TP53, as well as in pathogenic variant occurrence.

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Sedentary behaviour and cancer risk: a World Cancer Research Fund International Global Cancer Update Programme (CUP Global) systematic literature review and meta-analysis

Markozannes, G.; Jayedi, A.; Cariolou, M.; Pagkalidou, E.; Kazmi, S.-Z.; Balducci, K.; Kiss, S.; Vieira, R.; Cividini, S.; Aune, D.; Greenwood, D. C.; Cross, A. J.; Gunter, M. J.; Zürn, S. J.; Abnet, C. C.; Gordon-Dseagu, V. L. Z.; Maskell, K.; Clary, C.; Croker, H.; Mitrou, P.; Riboli, E.; Baskin, M.; Chowdhury, R.; Gaudet, M.; Giovannucci, E. L.; Kampman, E.; Lewis, S. J.; May, A. M.; Park, Y.; Pischon, T. J.; Severi, G.; Hill, L.; Weijenberg, M. P.; Krebs, J.; Tsilidis, K. K.; Chan, D. S. M.

2026-06-29 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.23.26355971 medRxiv
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Background: High levels of sedentary behaviour are an emerging global public health concern, but its impact on cancer risk remains unclear. Methods: Within the Global Cancer Update Programme (CUP Global), we systematically searched the literature in PubMed and Embase until September 2024 for observational cohort studies on sedentary behaviour and adult cancer risk. Using dose-response meta-analyses, we investigated sedentary behaviour domains (total, occupational, recreational, transportation, and/or other) and dimensions (duration, frequency), and additionally pooled across domains. The quality of evidence was graded by the CUP Global Expert Panel (protocol registration: https://osf.io/7utbm/). Findings: We identified 62 publications from 27 cohorts comprising 162,902 incident cancer cases across 19 anatomical sites. There was evidence for a probable causal positive association between sedentary time (mixed definitions) and breast (RRper 2 hours/day=1.03; 95%CI=1.02-1.05; I2=10%; n=11 studies) and colon (RR=1.05; 95%CI=1.03-1.07; I2=0%; n=9) cancer risk, and between television watching time and colon cancer risk (RRper 2 hours/day=1.08; 95%CI=1.05-1.11; I2=0%; n=6). Limited suggestive evidence supported positive associations between sedentary time (mixed definitions) and lung (RR=1.04; 95%CI=1.00-1.09; I2=69%; n=7), ovarian (RR=1.06; 95%CI=1.01-1.10; I2=0%; n=7), premenopausal (RR=1.03; 95%CI=0.99-1.08; I2=20%; n=7) and postmenopausal breast (RR=1.02; 95%CI=1.00-1.04; I2=7%; n=11), and colorectal (RR=1.02; 95%CI=1.00-1.04; I2=47%; n=11) cancers, and between occupational sitting time and breast (RRper 2 hours/day=1.05; 95%CI=1.01-1.09; I2=0%; n=4) and colon (RR=1.08; 95%CI=1.02-1.15; I2=28%; n=2) cancers. An interactive evidence platform is available at: https://teacup.cc.ic.ac.uk/sedentary-behaviour-cancer.html. Interpretation: Evidence supports that prolonged sedentary behaviour is probably a cause of breast and colon cancers, while limited suggestive evidence supports positive associations for several other exposure-cancer pairs, including lung and ovarian cancers. This evidence should lead to revised cancer prevention recommendations. Future research should focus on device-based exposure assessments, repeated measurements, exposure substitution models, inclusion of diverse populations and investigation of biological mechanisms.

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Loss to Follow-Up Among Patients with Kaposi Sarcoma at the Ocean Road Cancer Institute, Tanzania: A Fine-Gray Competing-Risks Analysis of Death as a Competing Event

Lugina, E. L.; Mwita, C. J.; Nyamhanga, T. L.; Lidenge, S. J.; Ngowi, J. R.; Kahesa, C. L.; Wood, C.; Mwaiselage, J. D.

2026-08-28 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361391 medRxiv
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Purpose Kaposi sarcoma (KS) remains one of the most common HIV-associated malignancies in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). While loss to follow-up (LTFU) has been well documented among KS patients managed within HIV primary care, little is known about retention after patients transition into specialized oncology care, where treatment pathways, toxicities, costs, and follow-up schedules differ substantially. Because LTFU is unlikely to occur at random, patients who disengage from care may differ systematically from those retained with respect to disease severity, treatment response, and mortality risk, potentially biasing survival estimates and underestimating cancer-related mortality. This study aimed to estimate the cumulative incidence of LTFU among patients with KS receiving care at Tanzanias national cancer referral center, accounting for death as a competing event, and to identify factors associated with LTFU. Methods This retrospective cohort study included 251 patients with KS treated at Ocean Road Cancer Institute (ORCI) between January 2021 and December 2023. The primary outcome was LTFU, with death treated as a competing event. Cumulative incidence of LTFU at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months was estimated using the cumulative incidence function. Predictors of LTFU were assessed using univariable and multivariable Fine-Gray subdistribution hazards regression. Results Among 251 patients, 214 (85.3%) had epidemic (HIV-associated) KS and 37 (14.7%) had endemic (non-HIV-associated) KS. Males accounted for 62.2%. Accounting for death as a competing event, the cumulative incidence of LTFU was 27.6% (95% CI, 22.0-33.1) at 6 months, 36.4% (95% CI, 30.5-42.4) at 12 months, 43.3% (95% CI, 37.2-49.4) at 18 months, and 46.6% (95% CI, 40.4-52.7) at 24 months. In multivariable Fine-Gray regression, absence of oral involvement (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [aSHR], 0.37), reachable telephone contact (aSHR, 0.54), and initial chemotherapy rather than radiotherapy (aSHR, 0.44) were independently associated with lower risk of LTFU. Conclusion Nearly half of patients with KS were LTFU within two years, substantially limiting reliable assessment of cancer outcomes in this setting. Strengthening retention strategies, including maintaining reliable patient contact information and implementing routine phone-based follow-up, may offer feasible, scalable approaches to improve continuity of care, enhance survival monitoring, and strengthen cancer surveillance in resource-limited settings.

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Biological processes linking soft drink consumption with site-specific cancer risk within the Global Cancer Update Programme (CUP Global)

Fontvieille, E.; Ahmadi, N.; Mahamat-saleh, Y.; Hashem, N.; Lauby-Secretan, B.; Gunter, M. J.; Tabung, F. K.; Turner, S. D.; Kok, D. E.; Jones, L.; Herceg, Z.; Simpson, R. J.; Chan, D.; Tsilidis, K. K.; Jayedi, A.; Clary, C.; Croker, H.; Mitrou, P.; Riboli, E.; Hursting, S.; Lewis, S. J.; Dossus, L.

2026-07-16 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.13.26356051 medRxiv
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This review evaluates the biological pathways linking soft drink consumption with the risk of several cancers within the framework of the Global Cancer Update Programme (CUP Global). Soft drink consumption has been associated with increased risk of multiple cancers, and glucose or insulin dysregulation has been proposed as a potential underlying mechanism. We applied a three-stage framework. In the first stage, we identified insulin sensitivity as the key biological process potentially linking soft drink consumption (sugar-sweetened or artificially sweetened) to cancer risk, with glucose-related and insulin-related biomarkers as potential intermediate phenotypes, using a combination of expert knowledge and a web-based text mining tool. In the second stage, we conducted targeted PubMed searches to identify studies examining associations between consumption of soft drinks and these intermediate phenotypes (IPs) and between these IPs and the risk of several cancers in adult humans. In the third stage, the evidence was evaluated by the Expert Committee on Cancer Mechanisms (MEC), who assessed the strength of the evidence for these associations. The MEC concluded that there was weak evidence supporting a role of glucose or insulin-related processes as a potential mechanistic pathway linking the consumption of sugar-sweetened or artificially sweetened beverages to the risk of various cancers evaluated.

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Assessing ethnic differences in age-standardised net survival of eight common cancer: an English population-based study

Martins, T. O.; Rachet, B.; Hamilton, W.; Majano, S. B.

2026-08-07 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.05.26359765 medRxiv
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Background: We examined ethnic differences in age-standardised net survival (ANS) for eight common cancers diagnosed in England between 2010 and 2019. Methods: Analyses included 247,428 patients aged [&ge;]40 years diagnosed with breast, prostate, lung, colorectal, cervical, ovarian, myeloma, and oesophagogastric cancers. Net survival was estimated at one, three, and five years using the Pohar-Perme estimator and age-standardised with International Cancer Survival Standards weights across four age bands. Results: Compared with White patients, Black patients had higher ANS for lung and prostate cancers at all time points, for myeloma at one year, and for oesophagogastric cancer at one and three years. However, they had lower ANS for breast cancer at three years. Asian patients had higher ANS for lung, prostate, and oesophagogastric cancers at all time points, and for other sites at varying follow-up times. Patients in the Mixed group had higher ANS for most cancers, whereas those in the Other ethnic group generally had lower ANS compared with White patients. Conclusions: Ethnic minority groups in England do not consistently experience poorer cancer survival, with varying patterns observed by cancer site. Universal healthcare access may reduce disparities observed elsewhere, highlighting the importance of context-specific research and public policy.

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Genetic and Shared Environmental Influences on Cancer Risk and Cross-Cancer Associations in Nordic Twins

Harris, J. R.; Clemmensen, S. B.; Adami, H.-O.; Mucci, L. A.; Kaprio, J.; Hjelmborg, J. v. B.

2026-06-22 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.18.26355861 medRxiv
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The relative contributions of genetic and shared environmental influences to cancer risk and cross-cancer associations remain poorly understood. We analyzed data from 222,530 same-sex twins from Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden in the Nordic Twin Study of Cancer, including 43,060 incident cancers over a median follow-up of 41.6 years. Using a target trial framework, biometric modeling, and competing-risk adjustment, we estimated familial risk, heritability, and shared environmental contributions across 35 cancer sites. Lifetime cancer risk was 36.5%, increasing to 51.4% in monozygotic (MZ) twins and 45.3% in dizygotic (DZ) twins with an affected co-twin. Overall cancer risk was explained by heritable (28%) and shared environmental (40%) influences. Heritability was highest for prostate (42%), non-melanoma skin (24%), and breast (18%) cancers. Cross-cancer analyses revealed extensive overlap in the genetic and shared environmental factors across sites, consistent with widespread pleiotropy and shared environmental susceptibility. Prostate cancer exhibited the strongest genetic overlap with rectum/anus (12%) and kidney (11%) cancers, whereas co-shared environmental influences were most pronounced for breast-lung (11%), prostate-bladder (11%), and prostate-lung (12%) cancers. These findings show pervasive genetic overlap across cancers at different sites and emphasize the importance of incorporating familial shared environmental exposures into cancer risk prediction and prevention strategies.

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MALAT1 Levels Are Elevated in Thyroid Tumors from Chilean Patients with Lymphatic Infiltration and Are Linked to Metabolic Reprogramming

Tobar-Lara, M.; Matamoros, A.; Munoz-Gonzalez, M.; Leiva, D.; Redenz, G.; Nardocci, G.; Meneses, L.; Cabane, P.; Elorza, A. A.; Aguilar, R.

2026-08-28 cancer biology 10.64898/2025.12.23.696116 medRxiv
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Metastasis-associated lung adenocarcinoma transcript 1 (MALAT1) is a long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) implicated in cancer progression. In thyroid cancer, MALAT1 has been proposed as a potential biomarker, but its role in disease progression remains incompletely understood. Here, we analyzed MALAT1 RNA levels in paired tumoral and adjacent non-tumoral thyroid samples from a Chilean patient cohort. We found a positive correlation of MALAT1 levels with lymphatic infiltration that was not replicated when modeling MALAT1 expression in a larger cohort obtained from the TCGA-THCA database. An exploratory RNA-seq comparison of one matched tumor-adjacent tissue pair confirmed higher tumor abundance of MALAT1 and the epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition-marker VIM, together with lower abundance of cell-adhesion gene PCDH10. To investigate the impact of MALAT1 on thyroid cancer and cellular metabolism, we targeted MALAT1 in the papillary thyroid cancer cell line TPC1. MALAT1 knock-down reduced proliferation and migration while enhancing mitochondrial respiration with no changes in glycolysis. Notably, although MALAT1 was not localized within mitochondria, its silencing modulated the expression of transcripts associated with mitochondrial dynamics and mitophagy. Consistent with these results, transcriptomic correlation analysis in the TCGA-THCA cohort showed that MALAT1 expression was largely uncoupled from oxidative phosphorylation and glycolysis gene programs, while negatively correlating with core regulators of mitophagy and mitochondrial dynamics, pointing to a link with mitochondrial quality control rather than direct bioenergetic reprogramming. Our findings highlight MALAT1 as a contributor to thyroid cancer aggressiveness and reveal a link between MALAT1 and mitochondrial quality control independent of direct mitochondrial localization. Besides, our results support a tissue-specific mechanism and population-specific role of MALAT1 in cancer biology.

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Trends and Future Burden of Major Gastrointestinal Cancers in Jiangsu Province, China, 2010-2030

Zou, Y.; Wang, W.; Tao, L.; Zhu, H.; Ju, H.; Pan, L.; Wang, W.

2026-07-17 public and global health 10.64898/2026.07.16.26358207 medRxiv
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Aim: To assess temporal trends in incidence and mortality and project the future burden of five major gastrointestinal cancers in Jiangsu Province, China. Methods: Population-based cancer registry data from Jiangsu Province between 2010 and 2021 were used to analyze the burden of esophageal, gastric, colon, rectal, and liver cancers. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated and compared by cancer type, sex, and urban-rural residence. Joinpoint regression was used to estimate annual percentage changes (APC) and average annual percentage changes (AAPC). The APC from the most recent Joinpoint segment was used to project incidence and mortality rates to 2030. Results: In 2021, gastric cancer had the highest age-standardized incidence and mortality among the five cancers. Incidence and mortality were consistently higher in males than in females and increased markedly after 50 years of age. From 2010 to 2021, age-standardized incidence and mortality declined for esophageal, gastric, and liver cancer, but increased for colon and rectal cancer. Colon cancer showed the steepest increase in both incidence and mortality. Rural areas experienced faster increases in colon and rectal cancer burden than urban areas. Projections to 2030 suggest continued declines in esophageal, gastric, and liver cancer, while colon cancer incidence and mortality are expected to rise further. Conclusion: Jiangsu Province is experiencing a transition in gastrointestinal cancer burden, with continued declines in esophageal, gastric, and liver cancers but an emerging and growing burden of colorectal cancer, especially colon cancer. Prevention strategies should focus on expanding colorectal cancer screening and early diagnosis, particularly in rural areas, while sustaining control of esophageal, gastric, and liver cancers.

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The Effect of Marital Status on Suicide Risk Among Patients with Breast Cancer: A Population-Based sIPTW Competing Risk Analysis

Zou, X.; Shi, J.

2026-07-04 oncology 10.64898/2026.07.01.26357044 medRxiv
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Background: Breast cancer survivors often experience psychological distress that may increase suicide risk. Marital status, a proxy for social support, may influence this risk, but its role within a competing-risk framework is unclear. This study examined the association between marital status and suicide mortality and assessed modification by socioeconomic and geographic factors. Methods: This is a population-based cohort study using SEER data, including adults diagnosed with primary breast cancer from 2000 to 2022. Marital status was classified as married/partnered or unmarried/non-partnered. Baseline characteristics were balanced using subdistribution inverse probability of treatment weighting (sIPTW). Suicide mortality was analyzed using sIPTW-weighted Fine-Gray competing-risk models, treating non-suicide deaths as competing events. Landmark, subgroup, interaction, and sensitivity analyses were performed. Results: Among 825,047 patients, 40.7% were unmarried. Covariates were well balanced after weighting (SMD <0.01). During follow-up, 529 suicide deaths occurred. Unmarried status was associated with higher suicide mortality (sHR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.12-1.60). Male sex and estrogen receptor-negative tumors increased risk, while older age and non-White race were protective. Findings were consistent in Cox models (HR = 1.45) and sensitivity analyses (sHR = 1.42). Landmark analyses showed persistent associations at 1, 3, and 5 years. The association was attenuated in the highest income quartile but not modified by rural-urban status. Conclusions: Unmarried breast cancer patients had higher suicide mortality. These findings support integrating psychosocial assessment and targeted suicide prevention into survivorship care, especially for socially vulnerable groups.

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Intimate Partner Violence and Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review of Evidence and Gaps

Glavas, D.; Makoudjou, M. A.; Melis, G.; Bernardele, L.; Paolocci, N.; Scarpa, M.; Agrimi, J.; Spolverato, G.

2026-07-16 oncology 10.64898/2026.07.16.26358254 medRxiv
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ABSTRACT Background: Despite its high prevalence and established impact on women's health, the long-term biological effects of Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) remain poorly understood. In particular, its potential role in increasing cancer risk has received limited attention. This review examines whether IPV may be associated with elevated cancer risk in women. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis in accordance with PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines to evaluate whether IPV may be associated with cancer risk. Eligible studies included adult women ([&ge;]18 years) with documented IPV exposure and cancer or precancerous outcomes. We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar for articles published from 2000 to 2025. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). A random-effects meta-analysis was performed on longitudinal studies reporting adjusted risk estimates. Results: Thirteen studies were included in the qualitative synthesis, but only two met criteria for meta-analysis, both reporting on cervical cancer. The pooled odds ratio was 3.00 (95% CI: 2.05 - 4.38; I2 = 0%). A separate pooled prevalence analysis of six retrospective studies showed that 32.2% of women with cancer reported a lifetime history of IPV. Study quality ranged from low to high. Conclusions: This review underscores the limited and heterogeneous nature of the existing evidence on IPV as a potential cancer risk factor. While preliminary findings suggest a possible association, particularly with cervical cancer, the scarcity of high-quality longitudinal studies and the methodological variability in the studies reviewed prevent definitive conclusions regarding causal linkage. Further research, particularly prospective and mechanistic studies, is needed to clarify the relationship between IPV and oncogenesis across different cancer types and to identify underlying biological pathways.

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The Role of Distress-related Metabolic Dysfunction in Ovarian Cancer Development: a pooled case-control study

Lin, N.; Balasubramanian, R.; Menichetti, G.; Eliassen, H.; Trabert, B.; Avila-Pacheco, J.; Townsend, M. K.; Terry, K. L.; Clish, C. B.; Tworoger, S. S.; Zeleznik, O. A.

2026-08-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361473 medRxiv
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Background: Evidence suggests chronic distress influences ovarian cancer (OC) etiology and metabolomic profiles. Here, we evaluated the association of a metabolite-based distress score (MDS) and OC risk. Methods: We included two matched case-control studies nested within the Nurses' Health Studies (N=584) and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (N=348). Metabolites were measured 3-27 years before diagnosis using liquid-chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. We examined the association of quintiles of MDS and 19 constituent metabolites with OC risk using unconditional logistic regression and stratified by tumor histotype, menopausal status, and age at diagnosis. Results: We observed women in the highest versus lowest quintile of MDS had an increased OC risk (OR=1.62,95%CI=1.03-2.54,ptrend=0.07), and type 2 tumors (OR=1.71,95%CI=1.03-2.83,ptrend=0.11). Associations were suggestively stronger for premenopausal and <69-year-old women, and driven by pseudouridine, and N2,N2-dimethylguanosine. Conclusion: Our findings suggest chronic distress-associated metabolic dysregulation may represent a novel OC risk factor, especially among younger women.